Are You Not Being Entertained? This Fall of Open-Play Goal Scoring

A key narrative of England's top flight season so far concerns the decline of goals scored in open play and how teams are finding goals increasingly from dead-ball situations as an alternative.

Looking at how goals have been scored to the first 11 games the prior season, we see 39 fewer goals in open play and an increase of 26 from team set-pieces and spot-kicks, leading to 13 less in total.

Considering the broader view, efforts on goal teams are taking reveal an incredible 370 fewer in open play than at this stage last season.

Even with the notable jump in set-piece goals, there have actually been just two more shots created from them excluding penalties, indicating the proficiency clubs have been at discovering methods to convert from dead-ball situations.

Goal Statistics Tell a Story

The 301 goals notched in 110 matches so far calculates at 2.74 goals per game, if this persists for all 38 games would be the least for five years, since 2020-21 (2.69).

Yet merely 196 scores coming in open play translates to 1.78 per game and is on course to be the lowest for since 2009-10, since 2009-10 (1.76 per game).

2009-10 additionally represents the sole English top-flight season to witness goals scored at a higher rate from set-plays excluding penalties than the current rate of 0.77 each match (0.79 average).

Which Teams Account for This Change?

In terms of scoring from open play, Wolverhampton Wanderers have recorded the most significant decline, registering a mere four in their first 11 fixtures, 10 less than at this stage last season.

Outside of Wolves, the Premier League's decline in open-play scoring is largely a London phenomenon, with five out of the capital's seven sides recording at least five goals fewer from open-play than last season.

To be fair, this is mainly because them scoring many goals at the early stages of last season instead of their genuine struggle to find the net in open-play this campaign.

Conversely City have recorded the most significant jump, with almost every one of their 23 scores to date arriving in open play.

Set-Play Proficiency

Comparing newly promoted sides with the teams that went down they replaced. Sunderland the Black Cats have recorded three more goals in open-play than Southampton did in matchday 11 leading to the drop last season.

Regarding goals scored from dead-ball situations (not counting penalties), Arsenal and the Blues have seen the most significant jump, with each team making up for the reduction of five scores that they've scored in open-play with an equal amount from set-pieces.

United have recorded double the number scores from set-pieces as they managed in the 11 games last season before the manager took over, while the Black Cats once more are more effective at scoring than the fellow red-and-whites they replaced.

City don't seem to have got the message about scoring more from set-pieces, because they've recorded three less than last season, as have the Reds, although this could be because of the change in style they have tried to implement.

Overall Patterns

Six teams – Arsenal, the Blues, Fulham, the Magpies, Tottenham and West Ham – have been this season's top trend-setters by recording fewer scores from open-play and more from set-plays, while Man City stand as the sole team to buck the trend to date by performing the complete reverse.

It remains to be seen to watch if clubs persist to rely so heavily on set-plays as the season goes on or if they rediscover their general attacking flair and begin converting more goals in open-play too.