Day-to-Day Killings in Mexico Drop Over a Third In the Sheinbaum Administration, As per Government Data

The average count of everyday homicides per month in Mexico has dropped by 37% since President Claudia Sheinbaum assumed power, per recent administrative statistics. But, security specialists have warned that murder numbers may not point to enhanced countrywide security.

Notable Decline in Per-Day Figures

There was an mean of almost 55 killings a day in last November versus roughly 87 when Sheinbaum took the leadership in the previous September. This information was shared by the head of the country’s federal public security agency, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the leader's regular press briefing on a recent Tuesday.

“The result in killings that have been recorded during these months is extremely significant,” Sheinbaum said, explaining that the previous month the smallest amount of homicides were documented for any November in the past decade.

Recent Context and Official Plan

Intense cartel rivalries, alongside the administration's heavily militarised operations to confront the drug gangs, have led to Mexico’s homicide rate escalate in recent times. The rate hit a peak of 36,773 killings in 2020, as reported by the country’s official data office.

That resulted in Mexico a homicide rate more than 4x higher than the US. However, killings have been on the downward trend, declining to 33,550 last year. Sheinbaum has attributed her national security plan for an seemingly sharper decline in killings this year.

At a press conference in the summer, the Mexican leader declared: “We have a plan, we have oversight of the strategy, and we have detailed monitoring town by town in certain cases. The plan functions. And we have to continue working at it each day.”

The key elements of the President's safety plan include:

• Reinforcing Mexico’s national guard.
• Advancing intelligence and investigation efforts.
• Enhanced coordination between various authorities.

Expert Skepticism and Statistical Limitations

But, security experts urged caution that relying on homicide data to paint a picture of peace was flawed. This is especially true considering the uptick in other crimes such as forced disappearances.

“It would be excellent news if this was a reduction, but I think we must not just focus on the homicide numbers and conclude: ‘Well then, excellent,’” said Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an authority on Mexican cartels. “I would be guardedly positive.”

According to the policy analysis organization Mexico Evalúa, killings in total fell by over 20% in the initial 10 months of the current year relative to the identical period last year. But, disappearances have risen by 15% and in certain states have increased by as much as 200%.

“Numbers on homicides is no longer valid for estimating the reality of public insecurity,” argued Armando Vargas, a security analyst at Mexico Evalúa. “First, we have police and investigators who do not have the capacity or the inclination to properly identify and classify corpses. Secondly, organized [criminals] … have the means to hide violence through disappearances.”

Vargas pointed out that using month-to-month averages of everyday homicides was also problematic because it might hide periods when there were notably spiking numbers of killings.

“Using the daily average makes spikes of violent crime invisible,” he stated.

Detentions and Seizures as Metrics of Success

Where the government can cite the success of its safety strategy is on detentions and seizures. Almost 40,000 suspects were apprehended between October 2024 and this past November for serious offenses, per official figures. More than 20,000 firearms were confiscated and 311 tonnes of narcotics confiscated.

“The former US president can't accuse President Sheinbaum of inaction, because actually she is accomplishing a lot with these many thousands of detentions, many thousands of confiscations, and all the operational weakening of criminal groups. It’s highly politically profitable,” said Vargas.

Persistent Unrest and Public Frustration

Yet notwithstanding these actions, Mexico continues to be plagued by severe violence, with a number of states in the grip of cartel-fueled conflict. Recently there was a high-profile assassination of a popular mayor in the state of Michoacan, one of 10 mayors assassinated in the past 12 months.

Weeks after, thousands of protesters demonstrated in Mexico City and throughout the country to express their outrage at graft and cartel violence.

“The federal government frames [data] in a manner to construct a picture of safety. From a political standpoint it’s very effective, socially it’s extremely problematic,” the analyst remarked.